(Click here for our Eastern Conference breakdown)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Antonio Spurs vs 8. Mempis Grizzlies – Season series split 2-2
Point Guard – Tony Parker had another quietly great year for the Spurs, leading the team in scoring by a hair over Manu Ginobili. He is still one of the quickest guards in the league, and can get to and finish at the basket with the best of them. Mike Conley took another step forward this year, averaging career highs in points, rebounds, and steals for the Grizzlies. But his first playoff experience will test the 23-year-old’s composure. Edge: San Antonio
Shooting Guard – Manu Ginobili was a viable MVP candidate the first half of the year, but injuries slowed him later in the year. Ginobili is unlikely to play in game one, but could be back for game two. Tony Allen has been the Grizzlies choice at two guard in the latter part of the year. He brings defense and athleticism, aiding Memphis desire to run. Edge: San Antonio
Small Forward – Richard Jefferson is not the same athlete he used to be and he may never score 20 per game again. But Jefferson now understands his role in the Spurs offense, and his three point efficiency is at an all time high. With Rudy Gay out, Sam Young has filled in admirably at the three. Edge: San Antonio
Power Forward – You can call Tim Duncan a power forward, but he plays mostly the center for San Antonio now. Antonio McDyess has gotten the starting nod over DeJuan Blair in recent weeks. McDyess is not spectacular any more, but you know you’ll get good defense and solid role offense from him. Zach Randolph has expanded his game beyond empty numbers, taking on a leadership role and even playing some defense for Memphis. He is one of the more underrated players in the league. Edge: Memphis
Center – Duncan’s minutes and production are down significantly this year, but he can still get it done on both ends. Outside of a slow February, Marc Gasol has been very consistent for Memphis this year. He can bang inside, but will be tested against San Antonio’s experience and execution on both ends. Edge: San Antonio
Bench – O.J. Mayo had a down year, but now adds a scoring pop off of Memphis’ bench. Darrell Arthur can score inside and from mid-range, and Shane Battier adds defense and leadership to the second unit. Despite injuries to Gay and Xavier Henry, Memphis has decent depth. The Spurs don’t have a lot of big names on the bench,but they all play well within the system. George Hill is the exception to the previous statement, as he could start on many teams in the NBA. Edge: San Antonio
Coach – Lionel Hollins has done a great job with the Grizzlies, especially in the face of adversity. But Gregg Popovich has achieved near legendary status in the NBA with his post-season success. Edge: San Antonio
Intangibles – The Spurs obviously have the experience and the poise in this series. Injuries could play a huge factor, as Memphis could struggle in the slow it down playoff game without Rudy Gay. At the same time, Manu Ginobili’s health is a huge factor for the Spurs. Edge: San Antonio
Summary – The Spurs won almost every category, but only experience is a big advantage. Every other race is fairly close. The regular season match-ups should be thrown out the window since Tim Duncan and Tony Parker each missed a game due to injury.
Prediction: Spurs in six
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2. Los Angeles Lakers vs 7. New Orleans Hornets – Lakers won season series 4-0
Point Guard – Chris Paul doesn’t look like the same player, but he’s still one of the top point guards in the league. He tends to play well against the Lakers, and he’ll have to continue that trend if New Orleans has a chance. Derek Fisher is often ripped for his lack of speed and mobility at this point, but his leadership is invaluable, and you can always count on him in crunch time. Edge: New Orleans
Shooting Guard – Kobe Bryant’s play has been great on the whole this season, but he has looked his age at times too. With the playoff schedule spread out the way it is, look for Kobe to be fresh and play well. Marco Belinelli is a creative player who can hit shots, though he likely won’t spend much time guarding Kobe. Edge: Los Angeles
Small Forward – The two starting small forwards were essentially traded for each other two years ago. Ariza has seen his ups and downs on offense but is always a threat to streak into the passing lane and finish with a dunk at the other end. He could also see significant time matched up with Bryant on the defensive end. Artest is a wild card for the Lakers. When he’s focused, he can still be a big impact player on both ends. But at times, his mind still seems to wander into the woods, stumble upon a cabin, eat some porridge, and take a nap. Edge: Even
Power Forward – The “soft” label still hasn’t left Pau Gasol, even after two titles and three finals appearances. But Pau’s toughness has increased in recent years, and for the most part, he will battle with anybody inside. Still, Gasol’s advantage is his length and skill. The Hornets were a small team already, but lost their best big man when David West tore his ACL. Carl Landry has filled in well at the four, and he generally give the Lakers fits with his energy, but he just doesn’t have the length to combat L.A.’s bigs. Edge: Los Angeles
Center – Despite another injury scare, it looks Andrew Bynum will be ready to go for the Lakers. If he continues to play at his post All Star level, Los Angeles is almost unbeatable. Emeka Okafor is a strong defender and rebounder, but he still doesn’t have a great offensive game. Okafor will try to muscle Bynum and Gasol out of the post, but he doesn’t have the length to stop them consistently. Edge: Los Angeles
Bench – Lamar Odom is likely to be the sixth man of the year after having one of his best seasons ever. Steve Blake is recovering from chicken pox, and Matt Barnes has a banged up knee. If either of those guys miss significant time, the Lakers depth takes a big hit. Jarrett Jack rounded into form as the year went on, and he forms a good backup backcourt with Willie Green. The Hornets don’t have much front court depth to speak of. Edge: Los Angeles
Intangibles - The Lakers have been to three straight finals, and won two straight titles. They clearly have the experience edge, and the mental edge after sweeping the season series. Edge: Los Angeles
Summary – The Lakers didn’t get the number one seed, but this is their best possible first round match-up.
Prediction: Lakers in four
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3. Dallas Mavericks vs 6. Portland Trail Blazers – Season series split 2-2
Point Guard – The Mavs guard spots are somewhat interchangeable, but we’ll consider Jason Kidd here since he still initiates the offense most of the time. Kidd had a terrible year shooting the ball, and it got worse as the season went along. He still does a lot of the little things well, but he is definitely showing his age. Andre Miller had another solid season despite poor athleticism and limited shooting range. Miller is almost as savvy as Kidd, but slightly more mobile at this point in his career. Edge: Portland
Shooting Guard – Roddy Beaubois has been Dallas’ normal starting two when healthy, but he’s not healthy right now and will miss game 1. With Beaubois out, DeShawn Stevenson provides good defense and decent athleticism. His offense leaves something to be desired however. The Blazers have played much of the season without Brandon Roy, or at least without him near 100%. But Wesley Matthews has played very well, even surpassing his highly criticized free agent contract. Edge: Portland
Small Forward – Gerald Wallace has excelled since moving into the starting lineup, averaging 18.3 points and 7.3 rebounds as a Blazers starter. He also plays great defense, and adds an element of toughness for Portland. Dallas really misses Caron Butler, who could return later in the playoffs but not likely in the first round. Shawn Marion is still a creative scorer around the basket, a good rebounder, and a tough defender. He and Wallace have a lot of similarities. Edge: Portland
Power Forward – Both Dirk Nowitzki and LeMarcus Aldridge had MVP caliber seasons, and both went largely underappreciated. Aldridge’s post game is very solid, and his jumper is almost automatic out to 20 feet. Dirk is getting older but not slowing down, adding more subtle moves to his offensive repertoire. Edge: Even
Center – Never has a team endured so many injuries at the same position, and still succeeded overall. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla, and Marcus Camby have all missed significant chunks of action. Camby is another vet who adds leadership, defense and rebounding, and he can still knock down the face-up jumper. Tyson Chandler has good but not great numbers, but his defensive impact goes far beyond that. His activity and mobility on defense allow the Mavs to play an effective zone.Edge: Dallas
Bench – Dallas has a ton of scoring off the bench with Jason Terry, JJ Barea, and even Peja Stojakovic. They also get decent defense from Brendan Haywood and Corey Brewer. Brandon Roy’s presence in the second unit is big, despite his poor numbers. Nicolas Batum was the starter until Wallace arrived, and could be on many teams in the league still. But the Blazers don’t have much bench depth beyond that. Edge: Dallas
Coach – Both Nate McMillan and Rick Carlisle did outstanding jobs this year, and both should be given COY consideration. Carlisle had some post-season success early in his career, but his Mavs teams have taken early exits each of the last two years. McMillan has generally had less talent to work with, but only got past the first round once in his first ten head coaching seasons. Edge: Even
Intangibles – Health concerns again could come into play in this series. Both teams have a number of nagging injuries slowing them down. Several of these Mavericks have been to the NBA Finals, but they have wilted under the pressure in recent years. The Blazers, by contrast, have not yet had to face that type of pressure. Edge: Even
Summary – Dallas’ overall depth should be a difference maker in this series, but Porland will continue to play hard and lay it all on the line. Because of that never-say-die attitude, the beneficial head-to-head match-ups, and the diverging recent fortunes of each team, Portland is the most likely underdog to score a first round upset.
Prediction: Blazers in 7
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4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs 5. Denver Nuggets – Thunder won season series 3-1
Point Guard – Russell Westbrook has evolved into one of the best point guards in the game. He still needs to improve his decision making, and the consistency of his jumper, but he can do everything on the floor. Outside of Derrick Rose, Westbrook may be the best in the league at getting to the basket and finishing. Ty Lawson’s already strong production improved even more once he was named a starter. But his sore ankle could reduce the quickness and explosiveness slightly. Edge: Oklahoma City
Shooting Guard – Thabo Sefalosha is one of the better perimeter defenders in the game, and his athleticism allows him to finish on the break, or while slashing to the basket. Arron Afflalo is banged up like so many others right now. If he’s able to go, Afflalo is also a very good defender, can hit the three at a high percentage, and always seems to play under control. Edge: Denver
Small Forward – Kevin Durant’s natural position is the three. He is too big for most defenders at that position, but too fast and skilled to be guarded by a big man. Durant is a no-question superstar in this game. Wilson Chandler will likely get tasked with guarding Durant, and he is a very good defensive player. Chandler is no slouch on the offensive end either, with good athleticism and a solid shooting touch. Edge: Oklahoma City
Power Forward – Serge Ibaka has always had athleticism, leading to high-flying dunks, and intimidating blocks. But Ibaka is learning the game at a fantastic rate, and has even added a decent mid-range jumper. The Nuggets have cycled between Kenyon Martin and Danilo Gallinari at the other forward spot, depending on who was healthy. The two players couldn’t be more different, as Gallinari provides shooting and offensive creativity, while Martin provides hard-nosed defense. If both are available, look for Gallinari to start. Edge: Even
Center – Nene has had a very good season for Denver despite all of the turmoil. He has been the one constant, providing efficient play on both ends. Kendrick Perkins is another player whose numbers don’t detail his impact. Perkins’ presence in the paint is a big deterrent to penetrating guards, and his toughness sets the tone for his team. Edge: Even
Bench – The Thunder have gotten great production from James Harden since the trade deadline. Harden is able to play off the ball, or create offense with it. Nazr Mohammed was a nice under-the-radar pickup, and he teams with Nick Collison to give OKC plenty of size in the second unit. Denver’s depth has been the key since the Carmelo Anthony trade. The Nuggets can go 11 deep with high production guys. Nobody else in the league can say that. Edge: Denver
Coach – George Karl has had a long and successful career, and he should be commended for quickly integrating so many new pieces this season. But Karl’s teams often underperform in the playoffs. Scott Brooks has coached his team to steady improvement each of the last three seasons. It remains to be seen if they can improve on last season’s six game battle with the Lakers. Edge: Even
Intangibles – Denver plays very hard, but it may be hard to translate their breakneck style into the playoffs. OKC’s success last year should be something to build on, and they have two guys who can create shots down the stretch in close games. Edge: Oklahoma City
Summary – While Denver wins or competes at most positions, the advantage is large for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook if they play at their highest capability. The Nuggets will need somebody to step up as the offensive leader in those late-game situations in order to have a chance in this series.
Prediction: Thunder in six
(Click here for our Eastern Conference breakdown)
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